The 2025/26 school year opens on September 1, and the numbers already mark a turning point in Jerusalem’s future. According to data from the municipality and the Ministry of Education, out of about 16,000 children entering first grade in the city, around 8,400 will join Haredi schools. In comparison, only about 4,300 will study in state schools, while roughly 3,500 will enter the Arab system – a significant population, yet one that remains culturally and socially detached from the rest of the city. This demographic reality shows that the balance has collapsed: Jerusalem is no longer divided, but firmly moving into Haredi dominance
The Haredi majority in Jerusalem is undeniable
Despite these figures, city officials and parts of the media still try to paint Jerusalem as a “normal” city. The reality is starkly different: the secular population has nearly vanished, while the national-religious community now plays the role of the “new seculars,” struggling to maintain a presence against a rapidly expanding Haredi sector. In neighborhood after neighborhood, another kindergarten opens, another yeshiva appears, another block becomes exclusively Haredi. Meanwhile, the Arab population remains a separate reality, largely disconnected from the cultural and social life of Jewish Jerusalem
But the most significant change begins in first grade: this is where the future generation enters. A child who starts today in a Haredi classroom will remain in that system for life, shaping his or her entire worldview. That means first grade in Jerusalem is not just a statistic – it is the clearest preview of the city’s future, a mirror of what Jerusalem will look like in a decade or two
First grade in Jerusalem as a global mirror
Looking at first-grade numbers is enough to understand how irreversible the change has become. International research highlights cities that underwent similar demographic shifts: Antwerp in Belgium, where the Haredi community became dominant in the economy and public space; Montreal in Canada, where rapid demographic change between Christian communities and immigrant groups reshaped the city’s character; and Detroit in the United States, which collapsed economically after one community left and another took over
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In all these cases, within a single generation, the city’s language, culture, and economy were transformed. Those who studied the first-grade classrooms could predict precisely what the city would look like twenty years later. Jerusalem now joins this list: the cohort entering first grade this September is the sharpest reminder that the future is already decided. And within this picture, the Arab population remains numerically significant but culturally and socially disconnected – living alongside but not truly part of the city’s shared story
